As peak season ramps up, many retailers are preparing deep discounts to lure in shoppers. But here’s the truth: consumers aren’t only chasing deals anymore.
According to the Sendcloud Peak Season Index 2025, flashy deals can’t make up for broken delivery promises. And with volumes more than 200% higher than the daily average during the busiest days of November and December, retailers face more pressure than ever to get delivery right.
In this article, we’ll explore why delivery reliability matters more than price in 2025, and how you can avoid losing loyal customers during the busiest shopping period of the year.
The 2025 peak season forecast: volume, speed, and risks retailers must prepare for
Peak season 2025 is set to be another record-breaking year for parcel volumes across Europe. According to Sendcloud’s Shipping Intelligence data, parcel volumes are set to surge by up to 72% across the continent during Black Friday week, before reaching their highest point on Cyber Monday.
Cyber Monday once again takes the crown as the busiest day of the year, with parcel volumes surging to more than 200% above the daily average.
Since Cyber Monday falls in December again this year, retailers should brace for December to be the heaviest shipping month. That surge will stretch delivery networks, pushing average lead times up by at least half a day compared to the rest of the year.
France, Spain, and Italy are likely to experience the longest delays, with parcels taking an average of nearly 3 days to arrive. Even in the Netherlands and Germany, where delivery times are usually quicker, consumers should expect slower service as demand peaks.
But volume isn’t the only concern. Lost and damaged parcels are also on the rise during peak weeks.
Across Europe, parcel losses increased by 20% and damages rose by 34% during Black Friday and Cyber Monday 2024. The Netherlands, in particular, saw parcel losses jump by more than 40% compared to non-peak periods, while France experienced a sharp 37% spike in damages around Cyber Monday.
Retailers who prepare for delays, losses, and damages will stand out from those who crumble under pressure. But don’t worry — we’ve got your back. We created this Peak Season Shipping Guide to help you navigate the busiest time of the year with confidence.
Missed delivery promises drive shoppers away
Shoppers have little patience for broken promises. Nearly 7 of 10 consumers say they will order from another store if a delivery promise is missed. And in France, almost 46% say just one failed delivery during the holidays is enough to lose them forever.
This makes delivery reliability as crucial as discounts. After all, what good is a discount if the gift doesn’t arrive on time? Fixing bottlenecks in carrier capacity, fulfillment, or last-mile delivery before the rush is the best insurance against broken promises.
In a crowded peak season, trust is the real differentiator. The survey makes it clear: two-thirds of consumers would rather retailers be upfront about shipping times than push big discounts. At the same time, 51% believe “next-day delivery” is often just a marketing trick, showing how skeptical shoppers have become of overpromises.
The message is simple: a missed delivery isn’t just an operational hiccup, it’s a broken trust. And once trust is lost, no discount can fix it. That’s why retailers should shift their messaging away from “fastest delivery” slogans and focus instead on communicating reliability at checkout and during tracking.
Reliability matters more than price
This holiday season, reliability outweighs both price and speed. More than half of consumers believe delivery reliability matters more than the cost of the product itself. And most shoppers are realistic: 81% say they would rather wait a few extra days than pay extra for faster shipping.
Shoppers don’t expect perfection, but they do expect retailers to keep their word. Meeting that expectation is now more valuable than slashing prices.
One way to safeguard promises is by diversifying carriers and offering flexible delivery options at checkout. Providing customers with options, even if some are slower, reduces the risk of last-minute breakdowns and maintains trust.
How retailers can keep promises this peak season
The good news? Meeting consumer expectations doesn’t require miracles. Just clarity, flexibility, and communication.
Be realistic about delivery times
Don’t overpromise on “next-day” if you can’t deliver it. Consumers would rather hear the truth than be disappointed. Set delivery windows you know you can meet, even if that means building in an extra buffer day during December.
Retailers can also use predictive shipping data to spot bottlenecks early and adjust timelines before issues escalate.
Offer multiple delivery options
Flexibility is expected during this season. From home delivery to lockers and pick-up points, giving customers a choice helps reduce failed delivery attempts and increases convenience. In fact, 62% of consumers prefer using parcel lockers or pick-up points during the holidays to avoid missed deliveries.
For retailers, this means fewer “where is my order?” calls and happier customers. Integrating carriers that support lockers and pick-up networks can be a smart move to spread peak volume more evenly.
Communicate proactively about delays
Mistakes happen: carriers run late, weather disrupts schedules, or networks get overwhelmed. What matters most is how you communicate when things go wrong.
Proactive updates via email or SMS can turn a potentially bad delivery experience into one that still feels transparent and trustworthy. Even a short message like “Your order is delayed but will arrive tomorrow” goes a long way in preserving customer confidence.
Strengthen your customer support
During peak season, customer service often becomes the frontline for delivery issues. Equip your support team with clear protocols, real-time tracking tools, and scripts so they can resolve questions quickly. A well-trained team can turn a delivery hiccup into an opportunity to impress.
Plan for the unexpected
Peak season is unpredictable by nature. Retailers who build resilience into their shipping process are better prepared when networks are stretched to the limit. That can mean connecting with multiple carriers, monitoring carrier performance to spot delays early, or adding flexible delivery options at checkout. Small steps in advance make the difference between keeping a promise and breaking it.
Conclusion: Reliability is the best discount you can offer
Shoppers have made it clear: honesty, flexibility, and dependable delivery matter more than flashy deals. Discounts may win attention, but only reliable delivery earns loyalty. Retailers who keep their promises this peak season won’t just secure December sales; they’ll build trust that lasts well into the new year.
For more insights on how to navigate the busy months ahead, explore the Sendcloud Peak Season Index and see the latest trends shaping consumer expectations.
